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Still Going Strong and Steady

Just how high can our condo prices go?

They'll likely keep climbing until at least 2011: report

Derrick Penner


Wednesday, January 31, 2007

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It's good news if you own real estate, but bad news if you don't: A new report predicts condominium prices in Greater Vancouver will keep rising through to 2011.  The mortgage insurer Genworth Financial Canada, using data from the Conference Board of Canada, reports that demand in Vancouver's condominium resale markets will slow, but so will the rate of new construction.

The result will be enough demand to push prices up 6.2 per cent to an average $307,305 this year, then 4.4 per cent on average through the end of the decade.  That will make the average condominium price in Greater Vancouver $349,409 by 2010, compared with $289,344 in 2006.

"Vancouver's condominium market took off in 2001 and has not looked back," the report says, and supply has not kept up with demand.  And although sales of existing condominium units fell 10 per cent over the first three quarters of 2006, the report said supplies were still tight and will remain relatively so through 2011.

Price gains up to 2006, the report adds "have been so steep that affordability is becoming an issue," even for relatively less-expensive condominiums.  However, Genworth Financial president Peter Vukanovich said he hopes the report reassures people that the bottom is not about to fall out of Vancouver's condominium market.

"People are seeing a lot more skyscrapers and cranes [around Vancouver] and are wondering 'who is buying all these things, and [saying] it can't last,'" Vukanovich said.  "When you do the research, you see we have some well-balanced supply being met by demand."

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